Our Position
After full review, Cosmos Labs does not support this proposal in its current form.
At the outset, we would like to share our respect and admiration for the Osmosis team and their contributions to the Cosmos stack, and to the blockchain space at large.
We agree on the underlying principle: the Cosmos Hub should have a native liquidity venue to continue to service the ecosystem’s need for on-chain liquidity, power Skip:go, and expand the Hub’s ability to service new enterprise networks launching in Cosmos. A well-integrated DEX on the Hub is a legitimate strategic goal — and merging Osmosis with the Hub is one of many possible options to achieve that goal.
That said, we do not currently support the proposal in the current form, given our concerns on the proposed valuation, transaction structure or the sufficiency of the information currently provided to assess the proposal. Questions about Osmosis’s long-term product fit vs other solutions and the technical risks associated with deploying the Osmosis architecture on the Hub are also not addressed by this proposal.
Our response below explains what is missing and why it matters before any vote is held.
What the Community Is Being Asked to Approve
The proposal requests that the Cosmos Hub:
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Deploy up to ~11.82M ATOM from the Community Pool and new minting, worth ~$21.6m at current prices.
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Mint new ATOM to acquire Osmosis at a conversion rate based on a 30-day TWAP at the time of forum submission
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Transfer IP ownership of Osmosis to OGP
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Transfer ownership, and governance of the Osmosis DEX to Cosmos Hub governance
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Assume responsibility for ongoing development, maintenance, and liquidity seeding
This would be the largest spend from the Cosmos Hub Community Pool in the Hub’s history. It would consume the entire Community Pool in addition to a net-new ATOM mint.
What “Yes” Means in its Current Form
A yes vote on this proposal directs the Hub to acquire an asset at a price defined by short-term market price ratio. It does not come with a negotiated acquisition price for a distressed asset, a defensible revenue multiple, payback analysis, or a mechanism that ties the OSMO-to-ATOM conversion to the performance of the merged protocol. Once the conversion window opens, the cost is fixed regardless of what happens to revenue or liquidity.
The OSMO-to-ATOM-conversion unlocks upon code deployment; before any liquidity migrates, before any revenue is confirmed on the Hub, and before the success of the integration can be assessed. The Hub bears all the downside risk with no mechanism for adjustment. Effectively, the ATOM holder community would be unlocking $20m+ of immediately sellable ATOM on a short term timeframe.
Issue 1: Osmosis TVL and Revenue are in Decline
The proposal cites Osmosis’s 2025 revenue of $5.5m as the primary justification for the acquisition cost. We believe the figure substantially overstates the sustainable, forward-looking revenue that will be available to the Hub after the merger. There are two reasons for this.
1a. Revenue Has Been in Consistent Decline
In the last 6 months, Osmosis’s revenue has been in constant decline, falling 67.4% m/m between November and December, 52.5% between December and January, and 30.3% between January and February. Total annualized revenue in the last 6 months is $3.29m. Adjusting downward for anomalous trading activity as a result of AtomOne speculation in October and November, annualized revenue over that period is likely less than $2.7m (Source: Datalenses). Assuming no further decline in revenues and ignoring all maintenance costs, it would still take the Hub over 8 years to recover its investment at the current cost.
That said, because revenue and TVL are on a downward trajectory and there are limited short-term options available to change that trajectory, we believe that actual steady-state revenue over the next 12-24 months will be significantly lower than historical revenue. This creates a substantial risk that acquiring Osmosis at the asking price will result in a long-term net loss for the Cosmos Hub.
1b. No Forward-Looking Revenue Framework & One-Time Windfall Events
The proposal provides no framework upon which to evaluate forward-looking revenue potential taking into account the revenue trend over the last 6-12 months. Without that framework, evaluation of Osmosis’s valuation occurs in a vacuum.
The 2025 revenue figure almost certainly includes extraordinary, non-recurring trading activity, including a large single-actor position conversion event in the ATOM / ATONE market in late 2025 that generated a temporary fee spike with no bearing on the business’ ongoing earning capacity. Revenue figures used for valuation must be normalized to exclude such events.
Issue 2: Liquidity Migration is the Central Risk
In order to achieve a successful outcome, the technical migration must go well and, importantly, a majority of liquidity currently on Osmosis must migrate to the Cosmos Hub. This is because:
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Without substantial liquidity on the Hub, aggregators and APIs will continue to prefer other liquidity venues (including Osmosis Legacy) over the Hub. Fees collected by the legacy chain on an ongoing basis will continue to accrue to the legacy chain and be subject to OSMO governance, putting the Hub in competition with itself and making ATOM recapture of those fees uncertain.
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Deploying a DEX without liquidity on the Cosmos Hub can be done far more efficiently and cheaply with other solutions. The primary value Osmosis brings to the Hub is its existing user base and liquidity.
As it stands, the likelihood that liquidity migrates from the Osmosis chain deployment to the Cosmos Hub deployment is unclear. Active liquidity providers on Osmosis have an incentive to stay deployed on the Osmosis chain so long as trading volume on the legacy deployment remains higher. Convincing those LPs to migrate will likely require substantial additional incentives in ATOM, or a large loan of ATOM to market makers that can facilitate liquidity along spreads that are competitive with the Osmosis legacy deployment. Neither is accounted for in this proposal.
Despite the fact that the bulk of the value is predicated on a successful liquidity migration, the OSMO > ATOM conversion unlocks as soon as the codebase is deployed on the Cosmos Hub without regard for whether any liquidity migration occurs. We believe that this structure does not properly align the incentives of the Osmosis and Cosmos Hub communities.
The proposal should provide a clear path to migrate liquidity to the Cosmos Hub, with any incentive plans transparently outlined. We also believe that the proposal should include earn outs predicated on the successful migration of liquidity to the Hub and overall earned revenue. If liquidity does not meet predefined thresholds, the acquisition value should be reduced accordingly.
Issue 3: The Acquisition Cost is Excessive
As we’ve stated in the past, we believe that any proposal which requests substantial community pool funding should demonstrate clear growth potential for the Cosmos Hub and ATOM that is proportional to the value being requested. Here, the valuation framework used (30-day market price TWAP) does not reflect a reasonable cost given the significant risk taken on by the Hub as a result of this acquisition.
As proposed, the acquisition price is nearly $23m and would cost the entire community pool plus a net-new mint of ATOM, an unprecedented resource expenditure for the Cosmos Hub that would significantly hamper its ability to invest in other growth initiatives. For the value provided, we do not believe that this is a worthwhile investment for the Hub to make.
3a. A 30-Day TWAP is Not an Acquisition Valuation Method
A token price ratio reflects market sentiment at a given point in time. It does not account for sustainable cash flows the Hub would receive after the merger, the risk of the migration, the costs of ongoing development, or the trajectory of revenue. In conventional acquisition contexts, including those within crypto, price must be anchored to verified trailing revenue, discounted at an appropriate rate for risk, with structured earnouts used to bridge certain uncertainty. Anchoring the headline ask to a TWAP at proposal submission means the Hub is likely paying peak prices for a highly volatile and declining asset.
3b. Post-Migration Revenue May Be a Fraction of Headline Figures
A substantial amount of liquidity may be lost in the migration process, and steady-state revenue for a Cosmos Hub deployment of Osmosis could be as low as $30,000 - $100,000 per month on average in the first two years as a result of that capital loss and ongoing fragmentation of value flow through the Osmosis legacy deployment.
With that in mind, this is an example of some possible valuation frameworks for Osmosis assuming various revenue multiples.
| Scenario | Revenue | Multiple | Base Value |
| Conservative | $450K (post-migration) | 3x | $1.35m |
| Base Case | $1.2m | 4.5x | $5.4m |
| Optimistic | $3m (with growth) | 7.5x | $22.5m |
As such, we believe a more reasonable acquisition price to be approximately $5m, subject to milestones for liquidity migration and revenue earned over the course of the first two years.
A Note on Valuation: How to Think About What Osmosis is Worth
The most intuitive way to evaluate any acquisition is simple: how long does it take to get your money back?
If the Hub pays $23m and receives $3m in revenue per year, the raw payback period is approximately 8 years; and this is without accounting for maintenance costs, inflation, and capital risk. If the actual post-migration is $1.5m per year, the payback period exceeds 15 years. Neither figure represents a sound use of community funds.
Scenario Analysis: What Are the Hub’s Likely Returns?
| Scenario | Annual Revenue | Payback at $23M | |
| Proposal’s best case | $5.5m | ~4 years | Requires no revenue decline post-merger |
| Recent 6-month trend | ~$2.7m | ~8.5 years | Before migration losses or maintenance costs |
| Post-migration (base) | ~$1.5m | ~15 years | 50% liquidity migration assumed |
| Post-migration (conservative) | ~$600K | >38 years | 30% migration; sustained decline |
How The Proposal Can Be Improved
We believe that the community should be open to a defensible deal. To get there, we need a shared foundation for relevant and reliable information. For example, the following additional disclosures from the Osmosis team are the starting point for a more responsible collective evaluation.
| What | Why |
| More detailed information on the scope of the technical migration, including engineering work required, operational risks, and implementation timeline with accountable milestones | Ensures the community understands the complexity, cost, and execution risk of the migration |
| Defined liquidity migration thresholds and the incentive budgets required to achieve them | Clarifies what level of liquidity transfer is expected and how it will be incentivized |
| A price point closer to $3-5m supported by milestone-based payments tied to liquidity and revenue migration | Aligns the acquisition cost with demonstrated performance and reduces downside risk |
| Full treasury and balance sheet of both the Osmosis protocol and OGP | Required to calculate Enterprise Value rather than relying solely on revenue figures |
| A five-year forward revenue model with stated assumptions and sensitivity analysis | Enables the community to evaluate the long-term sustainability and payback period |
Suggested Changes to the Proposal
| Suggestion | Reason |
|---|---|
| Tie the OSMO-to-ATOM conversion rate to liquidity migration milestones, not just code deployment | Prevents full payout before economic value is delivered |
| Define a minimum liquidity threshold (e.g., 60% TVL migration within 12 months) below which conversion is reduced | Protects the Hub from paying for assets that do not migrate |
| Include earnout provisions for revenue targets, eg Year 1, Year 2 etc. | Ties payment to proof of revenue value |
| Cap upfront conversion at a conservative revenue multiple and defer the remainder to earnouts | Aligns cost with verified performance rather than projections |
| Provide a clear technical migration timeline with defined milestones and accountability | Technical scope is currently underspecified |
Conclusion
Cosmos Labs does not support this proposal in its current form. That position is not permanent, it is conditional on the information and structural changes described above.
We urge the Osmosis team to engage constructively with these requests, and the broader community to withhold advancing this proposal to an on-chain vote until additional disclosures have been made. We at Cosmos Labs commit to reviewing any revised proposal promptly and in good faith.
The Cosmos Hub Community Pool belongs to ATOM holders. An expenditure of this magnitude requires reliable and relevant information to consider it. That is not a high bar, it is the minimum standard for responsible governance.